South Region Preview
There’s an old saying in Eastern Kentucky that goes something like this: “The sun don’t shine on the same dog’s *behind* every day.” (Now, typically in this saying *behind* is replaced with a spicier word; but, I wouldn’t dare tarnish the wholesome name of D3 Glory Days with profanity). Essentially what this saying means is that sometimes you just have a good day; other times you just don’t. For example, at the ODAC Championships meet, the men and women of Lynchburg swept the team titles and wrested control of the ODAC from Washington & Lee for the first time in years. On the other hand, the men of Berea College, heavy favorites in the USA South, lost by a mere point to Southern Virginia. All this to say: as much as we like to make predictions in this sport and believe that what you put in is what you get out, there are always opportunities for the unexpected in cross country.
So please, as you read this preview, keep in mind one of my favorite sayings keeps everything in perspective after a terrible fantasy football loss: nobody knows anything. Enjoy!
Women’s Preview:
In the women’s race, the picture is slightly different. We have a clear frontrunner for the team title and a handful others jockeying for position behind them. I expect the No. 24 ranked Emory women to win and take the automatic qualifying spot to nationals. Despite a 4th-place finish at the UAA meet, the ladies of Emory have performed well against national competition and have shown that they are a step above the teams coming in behind them. Annika Urban has consistently been Emory’s frontrunner, and after a 2nd-place finish in the highly competitive UAA, I predict an individual title for her in Spartanburg, South Carolina on November 13th.
After Emory, things get dicey. There are four teams who have a legitimate argument as to why they should finish runner-up in the South Region. Lynchburg, Washington & Lee, and Christopher Newport have all had great seasons and will be fighting for that 2nd-place spot.
Lynchburg: The Lady Hornets of Lynchburg should be the favorite to finish behind Emory in the South right now. They have performed well against national competition and beaten conference and regional rival Washington & Lee twice (albeit by slim margins). They have been ranked in the coaches’ poll, have consistently been top 3 in the regional ranks, and currently hold the No. 26 ranking from D3 Glory Days. All of the major voices seem to lean towards Lynchburg right now and LACCTiC projects them for a 2nd-place finish. But right behind is…
Washington & Lee: Third time’s the charm? W&L has lost to Lynchburg twice this season. Once in September and once at the conference meet — both times by under 10 points. W&L has been on Lynchburg’s heels all season long and there’s no reason to think that their third meeting will not result in W&L flipping the script and avenging those early season losses. I would not be shocked to see W&L sneak ahead of Lynchburg come regional time.
Christopher Newport: The women of CNU have a strong team, but ultimately may be on the outside looking in when the national meet is decided. They have a solid 1-2 punch of juniors Logan Funk and Kaitlyn Ardrey who took the top 2 spots at the Coast-to-Coast Conference meet. A worry for CNU is their drop after Funk and Ardrey — putting them below Lynchburg and W&L going into the region meet. But if they can close that gap, the ceiling for this team increases.
While I anticipate one of these four teams taking the runner-up spot, whether any of them make the national meet or not is much less certain. Lynchburg has been the highest ranked team in the South, but even still they are potentially one of the last teams into nationals. My prediction is that if the runner-up spot is taken by either of the ODAC teams, Lynchburg or W&L, that team will earn one of the last at-large bids. However, if CNU or W&L come in with the upset, there may only be one team from the South at this year’s national meet.
South Region Team Champion: Emory
South Region Individual Champion: Annika Urban, Emory
South Region Team Qualifiers: Emory, Lynchburg
Men’s Preview:
The men’s team competition looks to be a two-horse race between Emory and Lynchburg for the team title and the single automatic bid to nationals. Emory has spent most of the year ahead of Lynchburg in the national and regional polls. However, in the most recent D3 Glory Days rankings, Lynchburg comes in at No. 17 while Emory has dropped from No. 15 to No. 22 after a less-than-stellar performance at the UAA Conference Meet. This matchup between two top-twenty-five teams will be fun to watch regardless of the outcome. I believe that, unless one of these teams has a terrible day, both will be at the national meet on November 20th. As for who will come out on top at regionals, it truly is a tossup. Both teams have arguments on their side. Emory has the experience of being in this position nearly every year plus a head-to-head win versus Lynchburg earlier in the season at Louisville. They have a strong duo up front of Spencer Moore and Brett Lucas who have led the team for much of the year.
However, Lynchburg has a number of factors going for them as well. I would wager that Lynchburg has one of the better 1-2-3 runners in the country with All-Americans Max Sparks, Frank Csorba and Sam Llaneza. While Emory struggled to a 4th-place finish in the UAA, Lynchburg took care of business at the ODAC Championships. The big question for Lynchburg becomes runners 4-5-6 who right now seem to be Brennan Straits, Connor McCroy and Harrison Ladd. LACCTiC ultimately predicts a slim victory for Lynchburg and I would agree; I believe Lynchburg’s superior front 3 will pull them ahead of Emory.
Beyond Lynchburg and Emory, there are two other teams who could see themselves on the bubble with a good day. Christopher Newport has spent time in the national poll this year, but after an average showing during inter-regional weekend and a loss to UC Santa Cruz at the Coast-to-Coast Conference meet, I don’t see them hopping Emory or Lynchburg. Washington & Lee has been in a similar position; while they have been competitive most of the year, even beating CNU at Rowan, they found themselves 2nd to Lynchburg at the ODAC Championships.
As for the individual title, it is entirely possible any of the top runners from these two teams will emerge on top. All have strong arguments for an individual regional title. Ultimately, I am going with ODAC Champion Max Sparks. He clearly read my ODAC preview and was out for revenge. I can’t bet against him and get burned again.
South Region Team Champion: Lynchburg
South Region Individual Champion: Max Sparks, Lynchburg
South Region Team Qualifiers: Lynchburg, Emory