Great Lakes Region Preview
After three days of feeling sorry for myself and taking it out via short, uninterested responses to my college coach at practice, he finally asked, “Emily, what’s gotten into you?” I’m not usually one to draw out negative emotions or be unpleasant to my coach, so he could tell something was off.
Crouching in the mud near the start of our 1k workout loop, I choked back tears and anger and began to spill out all of the hurt I was feeling from my recent conference championship loss. It was my senior year, I had placed second, I knew it wasn’t my best race, and it stung. I couldn’t stop replaying the race over in my head--where I went wrong, where I could have been tougher, where the dread of loss finally started to set in.
I told him all of this as he looked me in the face, listening politely before promptly assuring me that it didn't matter. We were moving on. Regionals were in two weeks and the national meet was the week after that and we had bigger goals on the horizon than the ten-team conference meet in Tiffin, OH. And just like that, I flipped a switch. Pity turned to pride and I lined up for my workout immediately after our conversation, laser-focused on hitting my paces. I went on to have my best cross country postseason ever, not once stopping to look back.
Admittedly, some of these feelings rushed back to me as I observed the OAC meet this year. For every athlete who I saw exceeding expectations, there was one more who tanked and ran what they would perceive to be a disappointing race, Newton’s third law in action.
Conference weekend is surrounded with a lot of hype, but simply put, these races don’t do the best job of simulating what can truly happen for those who move on into the postseason--no more hyper-focused mono-vs-mono matchups or standout performances from teams and individuals who were middle-of-the-pack all year until the climactic conference weekend.
At the regional meet, there’s no pretending--greatness reveals itself.
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This Saturday, 43 teams are set to compete at the Blue River Cross Country Course in Shelbyville, IN for the 2021 NCAA Great Lakes Regional Championship, hosted by Franklin College.
This year will be the first time exercising the new NCAA regional realignment model, which split the nation up into ten regions rather than eight to better accommodate course capacities in larger regions. This modification only impacts the Great Lakes region slightly, as it adds the teams of Berea College and Centre College from Kentucky (formerly part of the South/Southeast region) and Franciscan University of Steubenville (formerly part of the Mideast region).
As a result, the selection process for the NCAA Championship meet has shifted from the previous criteria of two automatic qualifying teams per region and 16 remaining at-large bids to just one automatic qualifier per region, meaning the remaining 22 spots will be selected via at-large bids, putting greater emphasis on teams to have put together a strong season and more responsibility on the committee to pick the worthiest candidates.
Regardless of the new changes, the Great Lakes region continues to hold its high status as one of the most competitive regions in the country. In both 2018 and 2019, six women’s teams and four men’s teams advanced out of the Great Lakes region to the national meet, not including Berea’s men’s team and Centre’s women’s team, who both advanced from their previous regional assignment in the South/Southeast.
In addition, both winners of the Pre-National men’s and women’s races in Louisville earlier this season were Great Lakes athletes, as Trine’s Evie Bultemeyer and Wilmington’s Simon Heys nabbed each respective title. This race doesn’t even account for Great Lakes athletes Ana Tucker of Hope or Alex Phillip of JCU, both of whom will be in contention for a top finish at the national meet and both of whom currently lead the way for their top-12 nationally ranked teams.
Last week, D3GD ranked JCU men 6th and Hope women 12th in the nation following their victories over the OAC and MIAA conferences, respectively. Both teams are expected to go for the automatic qualifying spots this weekend.
In the women’s race at MIAA, Tucker was overtaken by Bultemeyer, who won in a sizable 29 seconds, posting what was perhaps one of the biggest upsets of the weekend. The LetsRun trolls would say that Tucker “went home devastated,” but if she felt anything like I did that fateful day in 2017, she will be back in full force this weekend. Regardless of who comes out on top, both athletes are highly favored to secure their ticket to the national meet.
Other individuals to look for in the top ten of this race include Calvin’s Sadie Heeringa, Case Western’s Jana Fisher, and Centre’s Meghan Owens. Heeringa finished third at the MIAA meet behind Bultemeyer and Tucker, putting her in pretty good company when it comes to national-caliber talent. She also placed third at the Augustana Interregional Invitational amid several nationally ranked teams, showing that she has the chops to run with some of the nation’s best.
Heeringa leads the way for Calvin, who will be in good contention for second on Saturday, as they are currently ranked 17th in the D3GD rankings. Calvin also beat #24-ranked Emory, a team that is likely to automatically advance out of the South region, at Pre-Nats earlier this year. Thus, Emory’s regional victory and a second-place Great Lakes regional finish for Calvin would ultimately play in their favor when it comes to receiving an at-large bid.
Case Western’s Fisher has paved her way through an impressive season as well, highlighted by third place finishes at both the UAA conference meet and the SUNY Geneseo Mike Woods Invitational. In fact, Fisher hasn’t placed any worse than 4th place among D3 competition yet this season, indicating she is pretty comfortable racing up front.
Another athlete used to chasing the gator is Centre’s Owens, who not only has some impressive accomplishments over 6,000 meters, but can also throw a javelin 142 feet. Can you imagine qualifying for the NCAA meet in both the 10k and the javelin throw? Owens can. That level of athleticism, combined with her almost perfect streak of D3 wins this cross country season (tainted only by her 6th place finish at Pre-Nats), is sure to make her a strong contender for the national meet. Make room, Great Lakes, Owens is ready to make her mark in Centre’s debut regional competition away from the South/Southeast.
Other conference winners looking to build upon their success from two weekends ago by punching their tickets to Louisville are Franciscan’s Allison Bryant, who won the Presidents AC Championships, Baldwin Wallace’s Hope Murphy of the OAC, and Allegheny’s Megan Aaron, winner of the NCACC meet. As some of the more competitive conferences this year, look for several athletes from the OAC and MIAA to add to the mix of individual qualifiers as well, including OAC-runner up Tessa Pitcovich from Ohio Northern, Otterbein’s Sydney Smith, Baldwin Wallace’s Alyssa Laughner, and Albion’s Megan McCulloch.
In the team scores, the women from the D3GD #22 and #23-ranked teams of Allegheny and John Carroll, respectively, are expected to make a strong case for receiving a bid to the national meet. JCU beat Allegheny at Lehigh, and then Allegheny flipped the switch to beat JCU at the Oberlin Interregional Rumble in mid-October, finishing just 18 points behind winner Carnegie Mellon, who currently sits at #19. The tie-breaking rematch between JCU and Allegheny will go down on Saturday and has the potential to pull both teams through to Louisville, assisted mostly by their respective victories over some key Wisconsin teams at Oberlin.
Historically, or at least in recent years, the NCAA has been taking a high number of teams out of the Great Lakes region to the national championship. As the women’s side appears to have more team depth than the men’s side, the question becomes if five, or even six, teams will advance.
According to the D3GD national rankings from last week, one of these fringe spots could go to Trine, who was ranked at #29. However, the team from Case Western is also a strong candidate, their biggest ammunition being their victory over #16-ranked Middlebury at SUNY Geneseo in early October. If Middlebury can get second in the Mideast regional (behind #5-ranked Williams) and CWRU can overtake Trine at Great Lakes, the case for Case solidifies greatly.
In the convoluted regional puzzle, one, if not both, of these teams advancing helps individuals in this race, as Bultemeyer and/or Fisher, who are likely to finish in the top seven, will be eliminated from the order. Thus, the fate of many athletes and teams not only depends on their own performances, but those of others happening around the country as well this weekend.
Contrastingly to the men’s side, the women’s race has some serious depth on both the team and individual fronts, making the Great Lakes region a hard draw when it comes to qualifying for nationals. Runners will have to put forth their best efforts come race day and hope that it’s enough to see them through.
In the men’s race, two teams are highly probable to advance: #6 John Carroll and #13 Otterbein. The team from John Carroll is favored to win, following not only a strong conference meet, where they scored 25 points and put six finishers in front of Otterbein’s third, but a strong overall season in which they proved dominant over several teams both in and outside of the region.
Earlier in the year, they traveled east to Lehigh Paul Short, where they smashed current #8 Carnegie Mellon (who is coming off of a strong conference meet themselves having just won the UAA meet, edging out the national ranked teams of WashU, U Chicago, and Emory) as well as #20-ranked Haverford, who is favored to win the Metro region.
Then, they went on to beat CM a second time as well as, at the time, #8-ranked team UW-Whitewater at the Oberlin Interregional Rumble. In fact, JCU hasn’t lost yet to another division 3 school this year with their varsity squad. It’s possible that this team won’t have faced a true challenge until they’re at the national meet against the likes of Wartburg, Williams, Pomona-Pitzer, MIT, and SUNY G. An automatic qualification is almost certain for John Carroll this weekend, whose biggest competitor will be fellow-conference and twice-beaten team Otterbein.
Not to be discredited, however, Otterbein has also shown their ability as a top team in the nation this season amidst stiff competition abroad. Their marquee accomplishment took place at the Augustana Interregional Invitational, where they took down #14 WashU (ranked 6th at the time) and were just one point away from #11 North Central. As many men’s teams in the nation know, any time you can get a good sniff at North Central, who just won their 47th conference title in a row (yes, 47), there’s a good chance you have a legitimate case to make the national meet.
While these two teams from the OAC are almost a lock for first and second, the battle for third could yield surprising results. Both Calvin and Case Western are in the mix to make the national meet, as D3GD has them ranked #27 and #29, respectively, an accomplishment they have both come by independently, as a head-to-head battle has yet to go down this season.
Calvin, another historically dominant program, just won their 34th consecutive conference title at the MIAA meet. Somewhat similarly to North Central, there’s just something special about seeing a maroon and gold Calvin jersey in a cross country race--there’s history behind it, pride, expectation.
However, this team has seemed to struggle a bit this year against national talent. They placed eighth at Pre-Nats midway through the season, over 80 points behind #17 Lynchburg. Similarly, at Augustana, they were 7th behind #15 U Chicago in another 80-point deficit. Some may question if this gap is too big to justify an at-large bid, but a victory over Case could seal the deal.
Case seems to be in a similar boat--their resume this season fails to showcase any significant cross-regional victories. Perhaps their best performance occurred at the All-Ohio Championship, where they placed third among DIII teams and just six points behind Otterbein. Regardless of this highlight, Case’s runners will need every place they can get to overtake an evenly-matched Calvin and earn their shot at receiving a bid.
Given the borderline nature of both Calvin and Case, it would come as no surprise that the at-large bids would stop there, if awarded at all, assuming these teams can place third and fourth to JCU and Otterbein in no particular order. Look for the teams from Mount Union and DePauw, however, to try to muddy the waters even more with an upset victory over one of these contenders.
On the individual front, it would be remiss not to mention Alex Phillip, the protagonist of any D3 XC article written on this side of the Mississippi. Phillip comes off another easy victory, having won the OAC meet in a solo 24:07 effort and, in doing so, debunking any excuses about not being able to run fast in mud or across a creek. Phillip will surely look to continue his winning streak this weekend, clearly possessing the fitness to do so, and because, well, why not at this point?
Another streak that could live on this weekend is that of Mount Union’s Jeff Joseph, who has been runner-up at every meet he’s competed in this year. Joseph, a gutsy racer, consistently shows a near-perfect blend of race savviness and straight-up toughness in his racing style. Each week, his strategy is the same: get up front, stay up front. Utilizing this strategy again could work to his favor and help pull him straight into the national meet.
This weekend will be just the second time this year that Joseph will race both Phillip and Wilmington’s Simon Heys in the same race, both of whom are at fault for his streak of second places. Heys placed seventh two weekends ago in a rough conference meet in which he was rumored to have stopped to replace a lost shoe.
Look for a strong comeback out of the 2021 Pre-Nats winner, Heys. With a summer base teetering on 100-mile weeks and perhaps some triple-knotted shoes, he has more than enough ammunition to take the first individual qualification spot out of this region ahead of Joseph, truncating his streak of second-place finishes. Plus, this will be Heys’s second time running this course this year as he won the Pre-Regional race hosted in Shelbyville earlier this season, finishing just ahead of Joseph.
Breaking up the OAC runners out front will likely be Franciscan’s Liam Galligan and Case’s Jack Begley, who most recently faced off at Oberlin where they went 4-5, respectively. Galligan’s season is highlighted by a 7th place finish at pre-nats, where he ran a speedy 24:33, while Begley’s most notable race this year was his third place finish at SUNY G, where he ran an almost identical time of 24:34.
Although entirely different courses, these two athletes clearly have some performance compatibility that will again be tested this weekend. Calvin’s frontrunner, Brandan Knepper, will also likely take a stab at top five, especially with his team’s qualification on the line.
Individual qualifiers could run fairly deep this year depending on how many teams advance. The front of the race is likely to be packed with JCU and Otterbein athletes, as well as Case’s Begley and Trey Razanauskas and Calvin’s Knepper, all of whom could potentially advance with their teams, therefore taking them out of the individual lineup.
That leaves Hope’s Nicholas Hoffman, Berea’s Luke Wilson and Avery Fair, Mount’s Vince Giumenti, Denison’s Keanan Ginell, and Manchester’s Thomas Richardson all in the mix to qualify, assuming the four teams of JCU, Otterbein, Calvin, and Case all advance. In the final straightaway where the difference between a trip to Louisville and a premature start to pre-season conditioning is a kick, track speed may just come early for some of these names.
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People say anything can happen in the postseason, and I’m inclined to believe it’s true. I’ve seen heartbreaks, I’ve seen comebacks, and I’ve experienced both myself. The new regional model and qualification process will change some things, sure. But I also know that when you fasten your mind and your heart to something you’ve worked so hard to materialize all year, circumstances begin to fade off into the distance and instinct takes over. The instinct to overcome that hurtful conference loss, the instinct to fight for the fate you know your team deserves, the instinct to survive and to win.
Instincts are always there--it’s just a matter of summoning them to life on the right day and at the right time. The work is done. The time now, November 13th, is for instinct.