Midwest Regional Preview
This weekend’s Midwest Regional is looking to be one for the ages. It is also the first year that we will not see any schools from Wisconsin in this region following a regional restructuring this past year. Nevertheless, with some new additions and a lightning fast course, this regional meet will still prove to be one of the fastest in the nation, and is favored to receive several at-large bids to nationals.
Women’s Preview
On the women’s side, this field is highlighted by Wartburg , WashU, and UChicago. All of them were ranked in the top 7 in the Pre Regional Rankings.
At the American Rivers Conference Championships, Wartburg’s top 5 impressively took places 2-6 to win with a 39 second 1 through 5 split to clinch the team title by 42 points ahead of Loras College. The Wartburg team has been solid all year with their only loss of the season coming from Augustana when Pomona-Pitzer flew in to take the show. Their top three have been consistent all year racing in the front and should give breathing room for their 4 and 5 runners.
The team from WashU had the most impressive split of the weekend, edging out 7th ranked UChicago at the UAA Conference Championships with a efficient 20 second 1-5 split. A team that wins the UAA is sure to make a strong showing on the national stage, and this momentum plays to WashU’s favor headed into this weekend. They have been moving up all year and with a previous tie (lost on tie breaker) and an outright loss at the Augustana meet, WashU is hoping to change its fortune when it matters most. They’re going to need to put their entire pack in front of Wartburg’s 4th to help offset the strong front running the Knights have.
Another team to watch out for is #7 UChicago, who may be seeking revenge from conference going into this weekend, propelling them to potentially pull off an upset and take down the two ranked teams ahead of them. They’re led by Claudia Harnett, the UAA Individual champion, who will look to continue to lead her team to the national meet. The only question mark from the Maroons is if Lucy Groothuis will be racing. She hasn’t been in the lineup since October 1st and having her back will give them added boost to compete with Wartburg and Wash U.
The matchup between these three teams is going to be insane as only one team is guaranteed a spot at nationals. All three teams have really tight packs which will make this year’s Midwest regional a nail-biter. Races like these are what make the sport of cross country exhilarating and fun to watch. However, the non-auto qualifying teams should not have to worry about not receiving an at-large bid, as they are all top 10 teams with a strong season resume to back it up.
Looking to make their case for a fourth bid could be the team from either Loras or Elmhurst, who comes off an exciting CCIW victory two weekends ago. Elmhurst has slowly been building momentum all year and will have a low stick runner in Alyssa Rafuse.
Individually, this race is Loras’s Kassie Parker’s to lose. At the American Rivers Conference, Parker won the 6k with a time of 20:43, which was a minute and 27 seconds ahead of the next competitor. Athletes as dominant as this only come so often, as some may recall UW-Platteville's Iam LaMere, who had his very own gator at the 2015 NCAA National Cross Country Championships at UW-Oshkosh due to his sizable lead over the field.
Parker may look to put a similar gap on the field come November 20, as she is one of the favorites for the individual crown at Nationals, and will certainly use this weekend to build momentum. It will be to the surprise of no one if Parker wastes no time and takes the race from the gun.
Also in the mix up front will be the frontrunners from Wartburg and U Chicago, Aubrie Fisher and Claudia Harnett, respectively. Fisher placed second to Parker at conference and Harnett secured the UAA victory. As both are expected to advance with their team, expect the CCIW champ Jenna Fiore of North Central and runner up Rafuse to make their way into individual qualifying spots.
Women’s Predictions
Women’s Team Champion: WashU
Women’ Individual Champion: Kassie Parker
Qualifying Teams: Wash U, Wartburg, UChicago
Men’s Preview
The men’s team race has the prospects to be a really fast race as Joe Freiburger from Wartburg will look to open the race early with a hot pace. The race is really shaking out to be a game of cat and mouse as the big question at hand is who will go with Freiburger. While it may appear that Freiburger’s main challenger will be his teammate Christopher Collet, don’t overlook the duo from UChicago that had an exciting sprint finish at the UAA to place first and fourth. Wartburg’s pack behind Freiburger and Collet will look to clean up the rest of the spots in the top 20, just as they did when they faced these teams back in October. Wartburg has only faced one challenge this from Pomona-Pitzer and will continue to be the favorite going into this weekend.
A team that will try to give Wartburg a run is 11th ranked North Central. The Cardinals have had a bit of a down year as they’ve relied heavily on younger runners, but that shouldn’t be a deterrent from them giving Wartburg a hard-fought battle. You can never count our NCC when it comes to a regional or national race. While they haven’t had the most linear path this season, the expectation of NCC is to show up when it counts and this meet counts.
The exciting thing about the men’s side is that there is a big race for 2nd place. With North Central coming off a dominating performance to win its 47th straight CCIW title and WashU coming off a 2nd place finish at a highly competitive UAA meet, look for these two teams to be toward the front attempting to shake things up. WashU has relied on pack running all year as their 1-5 split has been under 30s for majority of the year. This tight pack running was able to overcome a strong 1-2 punch from UChicago at the UAA meet when Henry Meyers and Sam Craig went 1-4.
Also looking to secure their spot at next week’s national meet are UChicago and Loras College. Both teams have had strong season resumes to get them to Louisville. Loras has been a team on the rise lately and will be looking to make a splash at this weekend’s race. UChicago will look to rebound after losing to Wash U by four points in last week’s UAA Conference Championships. The dramatic victory by Henry Meyers in the final stretch should have UChicago feeling pretty upbeat that they can overcome that deficit and overtake the Bears.
Loras, while not necessarily a top-10 team, has been a strong second-place to key teams all season, having finished second to #1 Wartburg by 38 points last weekend at the ARC meet and second to U Chicago at the Brissman-Lundeen Invitational in early October. This resume of competition should be more than enough to prepare Loras to convince the committee they should earn their spot for an at-large bid.
They are led by Ryan Harvey, who ranges from 1:54 800m speed all the way to sub-15 5k strength on the track, a combination that makes him a force to be reckoned with this weekend, especially in the final straightaway. Harvey will give everything he has to help his team advance, but at the very least, is favored to come away as an individual qualifier. Keep an eye, too, on Simpson’s Spencer Moon and Harry Dudley, who just went 6-7 at the American Rivers Conference meet.
Men’s Predictions
Men’s Team Champion: Wartburg
Men’s Individual Champion: Joe Freiburger
Qualifying Teams: Wartburg, North Central, WashU, UChicago, Loras